Monday, September 22, 2008

First Day of Fall 2008 - Happy Autumn

The first day of fall, or the “Autumnal Equinox” for 2008, falls on Monday, September 22nd.It occurs at 11:44:16 EDT)
It's time for a happy Autumn when nature spreads a pallet of colors. Reach out to your friends and loved ones with warm Autumn wishes and share with them the bright cheer that the red, orange..

A riot of bright colors, a mellow warmth and soft whispering winds... Autumn is special.

Fall has always been a favorite time of year.Fall seems as if it is a time of slowing down. The slowing of our frenzied life of summer, when the eve’s begin to get cool. It’s a time for opening the window while you’re sleeping and listening to the crickets instead of the hum of the heater or the air conditioner. It’s a time of balance, where the world stands still for a moment, the moment between growth and death. It’s a maturing time, when the soil seems to hold a special loam and the richness of the leaves and even the air that we breath has a musky yet snappy smell, that tells you “time has passed and the world is about to sleep.”

Heaps of leaves to jump on and pumpkin pies to gorge on! Isn't Autumn simply a time to whoopee with friends and family.

Fall is a respite between the hot day’s of summer and the bone chilling day’s of winter, where everything seems to be in balance. It helps you prepare for the breakneck speed of the upcoming holiday season, while affording you the opportunity to drink that hot cup of spiced apple cider.

Fall is a time of wandering the pumpkin patch for that special big one, and apple orchard’s for hand picked “Grannys” that will make a wonderful pie.

It’s the time to rake leaves, which is just anouther way of “starting fresh.” It’s a time for replenishing the pantry with hardy vegetables that will be turned into crock pot stews. It’s a time when the twilight arrives early and you can walk the neighborhood in the dark at 6:00, unencumbered by loud music, traffic and lawnmowers.

Softly whispering winds, bright colors and a mellow warmth... Isn't Autumn the perfect time for love?

Friday, March 7, 2008

Types of Meteorology

In today's world, it seems that almost any topic is open for debate. While I was gathering facts for this article, I was quite surprised to find some of the issues I thought were settled are actually still being openly discussed.

The information about Types of Meteorology presented here will do one of two things: either it will reinforce what you know about Types of Meteorology or it will teach you something new. Both are good outcomes.

The subject of Meteorology is one of the most ancient of all Sciences. Once, confined to observation of the sky alone today Meteorology is one of the most important interdisciplinary sciences. Besides, astro Physics, Meteorology is also essentially related to Climatology and other related methods of fore casting. If we take the time scale into consideration, Types of Meteorology may be strictly divided into synoptic scale, micro scale and meso scale Meteorology.

The study of Meteorology deals with all kinds of weather changes prevailing at the atmospheric boundary. This branch is better known as Boundary Layer Meteorology.
Continuous heating, friction and cooling at the level of the atmosphere causes major climatic changes on the surface of the earth. As a major Types of Meteorology, Boundary Layer Meteorology, aims to study and predict the climatic changes occurring at the level of Peoplosphere. Beginning from predictions related to pattern of wind to severe tornadoes and hurricanes everything comes under the umbrella of Types of Meteorology. Changes on the sea, land and water are also under the purview of Boundary Layer Meteorology.

Aviation Meteorology on the other hand aims to predict weather changes in such a way as to help a smooth flow of air traffic across the world. Both commercial pilots and private ones must know Aviation Meteorology in great detail in order to read and realize the possible impacts of a any kind of weather change. Aviation Meteorology undoubtedly forms an integral part of all the major air traffic control towers of the world. Agricultural Meteorology is of immense help to all the farmers of the world. Farming techniques and precautions change heavily with these predictions. Fisher men generally avoid the sea if any of the Types of Meteorology claim a rough sea in the coming days. All atmospheric changes taking place at the atmospheric layers including the troposphere and tropopause are under the purview of Mesoscale Meteorology. Types of Meteorology are heavily dependent on data and their interpretation in a large scale. Many a weather maps and wind maps of the world take help from all the predictions of the Types of Meteorology. Many of these are seen on regular news channels. Weather information on the radio too is nothing but an interpretation of the available data and interpretation from these Types of Meteorology.

Students interested in pursuing the subject of Meteorology, must have a genuine love for the subject. Many of the leading colleges and reputed universities of the world offer fine opportunities of research and development in Meteorology once you have obtained a graduation degree in Meteorology with good marks. Accurate interpretation of the data and a close study of the possible changes in weather pattern are an integral part of this study. Types of Meteorology is also dependent on the various kinds of modern technology like satellites and remote sensing technology.

Don't limit yourself by refusing to learn the details about Types of Meteorology. The more you know, the easier it will be to focus on what's important.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Medium Range Forecasting

The following paragraphs summarize the work of Medium Range Forecasting experts who are completely familiar with all the aspects of Medium Range Forecasting. Heed their advice to avoid any Medium Range Forecasting surprises.

It's really a good idea to probe a little deeper into the subject of Medium Range Forecasting. What you learn may give you the confidence you need to venture into new areas.

Medium Range Forecasting is one of the most reliable weather forecasting method in areas where weather patterns do not seem to change for some time. Medium Range Forecasting is used to predict the forecast of a give area for a period of 48 hours to a week. However, when Medium Range Forecasting are done it is taken for granted that no major changes will take place in the existing weather pattern. Considered as one of the most ancient methods of weather prediction Medium Range Forecasting was used heavily by sailors and fishermen in ancient days. Sailors and colonizers would set sail for exploring distant lands with the presumption that if the sky is sunny today and the weather conditions are ideal for sailing it will remain the same for another week or so.

Without the help of modern amenities and technology, Medium Range Forecasting alone helped the people to have a fair idea about the weather of another week or so. Patterns in wind movement, the condition of the sky during sun set and sun rise were some of the major factors that were taken into account before any kind of Medium Range Forecasting were announced. Undoubtedly, there are huge rooms for mistakes in such forecasting method.

Areas like the Mediterranean region or the tropical regions benefit most out of these Medium Range Forecasting. Medium Range Forecasting can be represented with Horizontal Representation, Vertical Domain, Horizontal Resolution, Vertical resolution, Vertical Representation, Computational Performance and Integration System are some of the major ingredients of Medium Range Forecasting. Unlike most ancient methods of weather study, Medium Range Forecasting takes into account certain variables like vorticity, divergence, logarithm of surface pressure, virtual temperature and specific humidity. Due to this reason results tend to be more accurate in Medium Range Forecasting. Of the many weather patterns that may be predicted with the help of Medium Range Forecasting cloud formation, wind pattern, precipitation, planetary boundary layer, snow cover and changes in the sea are some of the major ones.

Before remote sensing and predictions through satellites became a norm, Medium Range Forecasting was highly dependent on Medium Range Forecasting. The weekly forecast that Medium Range Forecasting offers are used in a major way by the various news channels and radio stations. Medium Range Forecasting is of tremendous help to those engaged in farming and fishing. With such weekly predictions it becomes easier for them to take the necessary precautions. Fishermen especially can avoid going to the sea in case any kind of warning is available from the weather department. Medium Range Forecasting also help to tell us more about the yearly patterns in weather and climate of a particular area. Those who are heavily into trekking, mountaineering and other adventurous sports also benefit from Medium Range Forecasting in a major way. This method earned its name from the fact that it takes into account a medium which may be variable or constant.

Hopefully the sections above have contributed to your understanding of Medium Range Forecasting. Share your new understanding about Medium Range Forecasting with others. They'll thank you for it.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Categories of Forecasting Methods

The following article lists some simple, informative tips that will help you have a better experience with Categories of Forecasting Methods.

If you find yourself confused by what you've read to this point, don't despair. Everything should be crystal clear by the time you finish.

There are several categories of Forecasting Methods. These methods are very useful for forecasting. Forecasting refers to the act of estimation of any kind of future situation of which the forecaster is not aware at present. The forecasting has a close nearly similar meaning that it shares with the tern Prediction. But when you judge between the two terms you can find that prediction is a more general term with a wider meaning including cross sectional and longitudinal data as well as the estimation of time series. The forecasting is a scientific method which gives a nearly accurate result as well.

The Forecasting Methods are now included in demand planning for the day to day estimation of the business forecasting. The manufacturing companies use this forecasting to plan their production and supply. The demand planning is also referred to as the supply chain forecasting for this reason. However, there are several methods that are applied by different persons for a forecasting. These methods can be categorized under several categories depending on scientific methods.

The categories of Forecasting Methods include one important method named the time series methods. The time series methods is the data of the past to determine what will be the future outcome of the situation. In other words in the time series method the historical data is closely followed. The chages in the data are observed and depending on the calculations and estimations of the changes the future change or future situation. The time series is often considered as a series of data points. These data points are spread over a period of time. The points are places away from each other with the help of regular or irregular intervals which can be uniform or otherwise. Some of the well known methods of the time series methods are:

* Moving average method
* Exponential smoothing
* extrapolation
* Linear prediction
* Trend estimation
* Growth curve

with these methods it is possible to predict about the future situation with the help of Time series of forecasting.

Another important method in the categories of Forecasting Methods is the casual of econometric method. His method include a few Forecasting Methods which use a huge number of possible assumptions. These assumptions are put in use to determine the factors which are underlying in the assumptions. These factors though underlying have the power to influence the variables which are being foretasted. For example the sale of woolen garments have a direct relation with the weather of the place. if such underlying factors can be detected understood in every case the forecasting will be a lot more easy. Some of the important types of Casual or Econometric method are:

* Regression analysis that uses regression of linear on non linear type
* Autoregressive moving average
* Autoregressive integrated moving average
* Econometrics

the categories of Forecasting Methods also include the Judgmental method which includes various methods like intuitive judgments, opinions as well as estimates of probability. The well known judgmental methods of forecasting includes:

* Composite forecasts
* Surveys
* Delphi method
* Scenario Building
* Technology forecasting
* forecasting with the help of Analogy

Simulation, prediction market, probabilistic forecasting as well as Ensemble forecasting is the other categories of Forecasting Methods.

Take time to consider the points presented above. What you learn may help you overcome your hesitation to take action.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Presentation of Weather Forecasts

You should be able to find several indispensable facts about Presentation of Weather Forecasts in the following paragraphs. If there's at least one fact you didn't know before, imagine the difference it might make.

Those of you not familiar with the latest on Presentation of Weather Forecasts now have at least a basic understanding. But there's more to come.

Presentation of Weather Forecasts has been an integral part of human civilization. Long before the progress of Science and Technology many experts tried to read the weather and climate pattern of an area by simply reading the climate pattern of a given area. In the ancient days, Presentation of Weather Forecasts was heavily dependent on human assumptions and hypothesis. Patterns of rainfall, climate changes, wind movement and chances of drought were all dependent on unscientific methods and human assumptions alone.

Thanks to the progress of Science and technology, Presentation of Weather Forecasts today is a much more easier task.

It is also more reliable as the weather and climate of the earth is literally studied regularly with the help of satellites and other scientific equipments. The popular belief associated with Presentation of Weather Forecasts is that it is important to know about Presentation of Weather Forecasts only when a natural calamity is about to come. However, Presentation of Weather Forecasts is of prime importance to all those scientists and geologists whose study and research demands a regular update of the climatic pattern on planet earth. Beginning from receding rainfall on the planet to the holes that have been created in the ozone layer, all these came to our knowledge with the help of Presentation of Weather Forecasts.

Most of the news channels and radio stations over the world, use Presentation of Weather Forecasts as an integral part of their news presentation. We would never come to know about Tornadoes, Tsunamis, Volcanic eruptions and other weather behaviors but for these Presentation of Weather Forecasts. Besides, public information, Presentation of Weather Forecasts is also used in a major way by Air Traffic control, Utility companies, Marine, Agriculture, Army and the Private Sector. Not only commercial pilots but those employed with the airforce must also be aware about the Presentation of Weather Forecasts before they set out for a flying expedition. If there is any kind of warning from the weather department, most of the air traffic control towers divert the flights to the nearest safe airport and flying region. It is important that the army too knows about the Presentation of Weather Forecasts so that they can take the necessary precautions before making any kind of important move. Besides timely Presentation of Weather Forecasts also helps the army to detect and anticipate the future movements of the enemy.

With improved technology and better methods of weather prediction, today one can always expect almost accurate Presentation of Weather Forecasts. Thousands of satellites hover over the surface of the earth and predict about the immediate and future changes in weather pattern. Fisher men and farmers too are immensely helped by the Presentation of Weather Forecasts. For it helps them t o take the necessary precautions. Fisher men specially should avoid the sea during the stormy season when the sea is expected to be turbulent.

Sometimes it's tough to sort out all the details related to this subject, but I'm positive you'll have no trouble making sense of the information presented above.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Atmospheric Dynamics role in local weather forecast

Have you ever wondered if what you know about Atmospheric Dynamics is accurate? Consider the following paragraphs and compare what you know to the latest info on Atmospheric Dynamics.
Sometimes the most important aspects of a subject are not immediately obvious. Keep reading to get the complete picture.
Atmospheric Dynamics encompasses within itself all the experimental and theoretical scrutinizing of all motion systems of meteorology which has got that relevant significance. It is inclusive of many various phenomena which are known in the current and natural context as: thunderstorms, tropical hurricanes, extra tropical cyclones, tornadoes, gravity waves, jet streams, and global-scale circulations. The main and the most crucial goal of the study of Atmospheric Dynamics is to elucidate the observed circulations which are mainly made on the foundation of fundamental principles of physical atmosphere.

The practical applications of the study of Atmospheric Dynamics is most of the times inclusive of almost perfect weather prediction, developing methods for prediction of short-term which is both seasonal and inter annual, fluctuations in the climate and having a detailed understanding of the the significances of perturbations which have been human-induced, such as: increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide or the untimely gradual weakening process of the ozone layer on the global climate.

The Department which mainly handles with study of the Atmospheric Dynamics has the main participation the analysis and within its scope it has also received the active research programs which at the major times depend on the studying and analytical problem on the global scale, mesoscale and the synoptic scale. If a research on the global-scale problems is organized, then it will include many topics which are integrally related with the change in climate and climate variability, the general circulation and stratospheric dynamics. There can also be a research which is based on the Atmospheric Dynamics and related to development of the synoptic scale, then the focus turn on the on the development and formation of extra tropical cyclones, the tropopause and its dynamical influence, stratified turbulence with the formation of rotation and assimilation of data. When we will talk about the mesoscale then it must be realize that at the primary level all the research oriented efforts are concentrated on flows of wind which topographically induced , orographic precipitation, stratospheric-troposphere and gravity waves exchange through mixing at the top of deep clouds with cumulonimbus shape.

The Atmospheric Dynamics is dependent on various aspects which are obviously the main controllers of the analysis of Atmospheric Dynamics. This has been a scientifically approved that the atmosphere surrounding us is having a complex and chemically oriented structure. This is inclusive of evolving various natural events, anthropogenic and biological activities. The atmospheric chemistry has got its direct link with the fundamental chemical links to the oceans, the biota and the solid earth. Perturbations which are related with anthropogenic and it is also related with the land-use and various other industrial activities which are modified up to a great extent with the chemical composition of the stratosphere and troposphere. It has also got important consequences which are quite potent, future climate and living organisms. Explanation of these kind of changes are inclusive of the formation of an ozone hole over Antarctica since the late 1970s. There has also been a long observed trends in long-lived greenhouse gases, acidic deposition due to growing emissions of hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide in industrialized regions and the change in the concentrations of tropospheric ozone.

When word gets around about your command of Atmospheric Dynamics facts, others who need to know about Atmospheric Dynamics will start to actively seek you out.

Modern system of Weather Forecasting

The only way to keep up with the latest about Weather Forecast is to constantly stay on the lookout for new information. If you read everything you find about Weather Forecast, it will definitely help you to gain your knowledge.

It's really a good idea to probe a little deeper into the subject of Weather Forecast. What you learn may give you the confidence you need to venture into new areas.

Weather Forecasting is made in recent times with the collection of decimal data which is about the current condition of the atmosphere and it becomes more effective by using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to contrive how the atmosphere will appear. There are various forms of nature in different times of the year, such as the chaotic nature of the atmosphere or the massive calculative power which is required essentially to solve the equations that elaborates the atmosphere. On the other hand the incomplete understanding about atmospheric processes means that the methods of Weather Forecasting will become less accurate.
The main reason is that the remarkable difference in time between the present moment and that very specific period of time for which the forecast has been made.

Very precisely the Weather Forecasting can said to be the the practical application of technology and science if you want to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and for a specific given location.

Ancestry of Weather Forecasting:

For several thousand years people of this world have tried desperately to forecast the weather. The first trace of Weather Forecasting can be cited in 650 BC when the Babylonians made predictions about the weather from seeing the cloud patterns. Before that also, almost in 340 BC, Aristotle elaborated weather patterns in Meteorologica. In other traditions, like that of the Chinese weather prediction it covers at least as far back as 300 BC. The ancient Weather Forecasting methods usually concentrated on the observed patterns of several events. This very accumulation of knowledge has conglomerated over the generations to produce a particular tradition which is known as the weather lore. In this context it must be mentioned that not all of these apprehensions were proved reliable and many of them were not able to survive the taste of time and failed to stand up against the rigorous statistical reasoning. It must be said that a great deal of progress was made in the science of meteorology from the very beginning of the 20th century. The enhancement in the field of numerical weather prediction was for the first time introduced by Lewis Fry Richardson in 1922. It was the computers which were fast enough to complete the vast number of calculations required to produce a forecast before the event had occurred did not exist at that time. Practical use of numerical weather prediction began in 1955, spurred by the development of programmable electronic computers.

Modern System of Weather Forecasting:

There are several components which are required to fulfill the system of Weather Forecasting. Here for your benefit we are trying to give you with all the requirements which are needed to make a successful and almost flawless Weather Forecasting:

* Data collection
* Data assimilation
* Weather prediction in a numerical way
* Post-processing model output
* Forecast presentation to end-user

This article's coverage of the information is as complete as it can be today. But you should always leave open the possibility that future research could uncover new facts.